History Repeats. What Have We Learned? - February 24, 2022

Russia Invades Ukraine! Deja Vu?

Last night, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. He added, “Our plans are not to occupy Ukraine, we do not plan to impose ourselves on anyone.”

Putin urged Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms and go home, saying all responsibility for possible bloodshed will be entirely on the conscience of the Ukrainian government. As Putin spoke, big explosions were heard in Kiev, Kharkiv and other areas of Ukraine.

Putin’s invasion has not caught any serious observer by surprise. He has been talking this line for a long time. Some (not many) world leaders have been warning Putin that should he invade Ukraine there will be “serious” (though unspecified) consequences.

U.S. President Joe Biden condemned the “unprovoked and unjustified attack by Russian military forces.” He said “President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering. Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”

These actions and events leading up to them are eerily reminiscent of 1938-1939 when German Chancellor Adolph Hitler acted to “protect” the German people then living in the Sudetenland portion of Czechoslovakia. He insisted that the Sudetenland be ceded to Germany and promised that in return he would not invade Czechoslovakia. We know how that worked out.

As was Hitler, Vladimir Putin is an adamant aggressor. He has specific territorial goals in eastern Europe. Some of these have been attained. Ukraine and others are undoubtedly on his list. He will cease aggressive actions only if and when he believes he cannot succeed. Vague threats, shifting ‘lines in the sand’ and inconsequential (to Putin) sanctions will not lead to such mind-change.

History provides four guidelines for dealing with an adamant aggressor such as Putin.

We must clearly understand how Putin’s goals conflict with our long-term interests, then make a choice – either forego our interests or prevent Putin from realizing his.
Putin will suspend his aggressive operations only because of a genuine belief that he cannot be successful (or, of course, at his death).
We must deal from a position of strength, both real and perceived. Ambiguous threats and unenforced ultimatums will be seen as signs of weakness.
Concessions will reinforce Putin’s belief in ultimate success and guarantee renewed conflict at a future time.

Have our leaders learned this history?

(For more, preview Adamant Aggressors here.)

Comments

February 27, 2022 Jan A. - Washington:
On the morning of February 24, I awake with a deep feeling of heaviness. “Oh, it must be the awful, vivid dream of the night.” In it, I am with my Ukrainian/Russian husband … in a very large beautiful home. It is full of light and created to bring joy and peace. Green plants and orchids flourish in each room. A young man, who knows we will be traveling for a few days, asks if he may have a party in this blessed space during our absence. We agree.
When we return, our home is covered in muddy footprints. Every inch … filthy with the outlines of shoes and boots, and all our vibrant green plants are snapped off at the base. We are distraught at the debasing of our sacred space. I forcefully awake to escape this unpleasant dream.
But then, I remember. On the night of February 23, the Russian sociopath despot ruler has sent his military might, with their boots and their rockets, into Ukraine, under the most cynical of false justifications. And that ancient, sacred space is now running red with blood and destruction. I wanted to believe, to hope the breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1988-1991 meant an end to the bloody hostilities of the Cold War and suffering of all the peoples of Russia and Eastern Europe.
In those distant years, on each New Year’s eve, people all over the world gathered in their homes and houses of worship, at the same time, to pray or meditate for an hour for peace and an end to nuclear threat and the Cold War. Miraculously, it ended. New potential for beneficial collaboration blossomed. Suddenly, our enemies became our friends … And for a time, peace settled quietly over the former Soviet Union, as those who had suffered so beyond our imagination began to forge lives without shortages, deprivations, senseless and endless killing and imprisonment.
Of course, the rampant corruption so deeply ingrained throughout these areas also flourished, and soon a new class of ruthless individuals emerged, called “oligarchs”, whose greed knew no boundaries as they accumulated trillions of dollars of their country’s wealth. In Russia, the former KGB man became president, then oligarch, and moved on, through wild election tampering, to an endless term of office - the man who would be czar … He is now taking his third bite of his neighbor-Ukraine. It is estimated 50,000 lives will be lost in this conflict, and the world may be forever changed.
But we are in a different world from the 1980’s. We have prolific social media now. Mine is filled with notes of prayer for the Ukrainians and an end to this madness. Is it possible the combined energy sent out from these snippets of ones and zeros will carry the same heartfelt potency of New Year’s prayers and meditations carried out so many years ago, by so many millions of individuals? While we, in my family, like so many at this time, try to contact relatives and loved ones caught up in war, we can only pray for a quick end to this madness. And hope social media can be a force for good.
February 26, 2022 Carol T. - Texas:
(We should) Start refining as much gas and oil as possible. Finish the Keystone Pipeline. Ramp up gas and oil production. Keep our eyes on Taiwan ...
February 25, 2022 Norm B. - Florida:
Definitely need the Swiss credit sanction to be implemented … Europe needs a quick testosterone booster!!!!
February 24, 2022 Tommy G. - Nevada:
Hitler and the Sudatenland all over again.

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